Over the years, I've had the privilege of attending all of Apple's major milestone events, including the launch of the first-ever Mac back in 1984, as well as the initial iPod launch. More recently, I was there when Apple CEO Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone. At the event, Jobs referenced the two previous major platform announcements and declared that the iPhone would be the third.
I remember how exited people were at that first Mac announcement. Thanks to backing from the three largest software vendors at the time and their head honchos—Bill Gates (then chair and CEO of Microsoft), Mitch Kapor (then CEO of Lotus), and Fred Gibbons (then CEO of Software Publishing)—the Mac was poised to become the leading PC product. There were, however, serious management changes in the early days of the Mac, as well as major missteps in how the Mac would be positioned. So instead of the Mac becoming a mainstream PC, it ended up becoming more of a niche product with an emphasis on desktop publishing and graphics-based solutions. Only recently has the Mac become a hot commodity and started to live up to its original potential.
When the iPod debuted with much noise and fanfare, most analysts and media saw it as just another MP3 player. Nobody could foresee how it would revolutionize the music industry and the music player market. And, certainly, no one knew that it would become a multibillion-dollar segment of Apple's overall business. The iPod has redefined the entire music marketplace and become an icon for portable music.
By the time Apple introduced the iPhone, the noise and hype surrounding it was palpable. For the first time in Apple's history, the company had launched a product that finally met the expectations of the industry and marketplace. It has become a major force in the world of smartphones and telecommunications. Yet, when it was first introduced, and even until recently, it was seen as more of a competitive entry into the smartphone market than as what it is likely to become in the future.
Thanks to the recent launch of the iPhone SDK, we now have a glimpse of what the iPhone is going to be when it grows up. At the SDK launch, John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins announced that Kleiner would put $100 million into iPhone software start-ups. His exact words in reference to the iPhone were "This is the next PC." Very few media reports recorded this comment, or if they did, they did not put it into context. In these few words, Doerr told us exactly what the iPhone is destined to be.
You might be interested to know that John Doerr is one of the most forward-thinking venture capitalists in the world. He became a billionaire by betting on the likes of Amazon, Google, and dozens of the PC industry's biggest companies. I have known John for about 20 years, and although he, like a lot of venture capitalists, has been prone to hyperbole once in a while, I have learned that when John speaks, he is worth listening to
Back in 1995, I attended a dinner with Doerr and Jim Barksdale, who was the CEO of Netscape—another company Doerr invested in—where they shared their vision for a new product they were working on called a Web browser. This was in the early days of the Internet, and as you know, the Netscape browser ushered in the era of the World Wide Web and the information highway.
Clearly, this guy's instincts about tech are spot-on. So, his thoughts/predictions about the iPhone are worth paying attention to.
Certain key components will make this vision of the iPhone becoming the next PC a reality. First, Intel's new Centrino Atom chips will deliver the processing power needed (data speeds of more than 1 GHz). Couple this with the rich operating systems and next-generation software that can be run on a device such as the iPhone and you have the power of a traditional PC in something that fits into your pocket.
If history is our guide, we may look back at this iPhone SDK launch as a defining moment in the world of personal computing.
PCMAG.com
