I've been quietly observing the rising hysteria and rumor-mongering about the next iPhone (iPhone 2 or 3G iphone or whatever) and whether or not it will launch during/after WWDC 2008...
And it's got me thinking...
If some of the investigative reporting is true, then somehow Apple have been building and stockpiling 3 million of the next generation iPhones in the US (and potentially globally) just ready to go at the flick of a switch.
The thing is, how on earth can they do this (i.e. build the damn thing, put firmware on it, box it up etc) if the 2.0 firmware hasn't been finalised yet (after all there was a new iPhone firmware as part of the latest SDK release)?
I honestly don't believe they would get Quanta to unbox 3 million iPhone and install the final firmware on it, re pack then ship them in volume for the launch (keeping it quiet would be next to impossible).
Another development in the past month or so has been the seemingly daily news that the iPhone is coming to this country or that country and from this carrier and that carrier.
The current iPhone ships with a pre-installed SIM tied to the carrier (I'm in the UK so my iPhone came with the O2 SIM pre-installed).
So, how on earth are Apple going to cope with selling iPhones where there is more than one carrier?
Lastly, Apple have struggled in certain countries to fulfill demand and yet have excess stock in another country. This isn't good for their bottom line and could ultimately mean lower sales overall and lower revenue in the long term.
Apple don't suffer from this kind of problem with the iPod range and must be able to divert stock to where demand is (remember Apple changed the iPod range a few years back so that they no longer ship with a power adaptor, much to the disdain of customers).
Here's my theory about all of this and how Apple are radically changing their physical distribution model.....
Apple have built a truly global iPhone.
They have built millions of them already.
Each and every iPhone is the same - there is no difference between a US iPhone and an Australian one.
Apple have pre-installed every iPhone with a bootstrap firmware that only allows it to boot and sync with iTunes.
Each iPhone will ship with an empty SIM tray. You will decide at purchase time which carrier you want and receive the appropriate SIM to install (for countries like the UK where there is only one carrier you will obviously not get a choice).
Buyers of the new iPhone have to therefore have to put the SIM in the phone then connect it to their iTunes to get the iPhone OS installed & activated.
The iPhone OS will then be customised to the country & carrier required, perhaps using iTunes & SIM information (language settings, 3G network parameters, ringtones & wallpaper will be installed at this point). These customisations would permit the carriers some flexibility in getting their brands onto the iPhone (future customisation updates could also be carried out through this process).
For Apple, this allows them to develop and fine tune the iPhone OS right up until launch time.
Furthermore by having a bootstrap firmware Apple ensures that all iPhones (either on contract or pay-as-you-go) have to be activated. This stops the "bootleg" iPhones that have flooded the market, raising the revenue stream for carriers AND Apple.
What about power? Well, Apple will remove the power adaptor from the package and have charging by USB (they'll declare that most of their users probably don't use the separate charging plug, that it reduces the packaging and makes it more environmentally friendly).
Apple can build as many of these global iPhones as they like, distribute them wherever there is demand and the user that buys it actually completes the build of the iPhone.
Of course all of this is all conjecture, however to me it makes an awful lot of sense, don't you think?
Apply the global iPod build & distribution method that Apple have fine tuned for the past few years and apply to the iPhone (it wouldn't be the first iPod element applied to the iPhone after all).
Only time will tell.....
Alex Waddell’s blog
